US Banana Republic Begins

$16.7T debt ceiling. Another $2T in debt over the next two years, with $1T in cuts. Mostly imaginary I suspect but we'll see. Now the discussion moves to the form and timing of QE3 which is guaranteed considering depression level US GDP the last two quarters. Let the dollar decline accelerate.

The US will be a banana republic with debt at 114% of GDP by 2013. Hurrah!

August will bring a brave new world to the fore

July is ending much differently than I expected. Planning is almost impossible in this age of hope and change.

Both of my guys and the process engineer for the area interviewed at other companies in June. All three expected to be working for new employers come July. Each of them was a strong candidate who felt that the interview went well. But in every case the process lengthened and then collapsed by month end. The engineer took a second, less desirable position with a second employer, effective in late August.

I suspect that all of the recent bad economic news is responsible. The debt crisis, dramatically lower GDP values for the past three quarters and poor consumer spending is clearly demonstrating that the world is still in iDepression 2.0 that is perhaps getting worse. Why hire employees when you may just have to let them go in a few months?

So I'll keep my guys. They both said that they will sit tight for awhile and see how things work out where they are now. The loss of the very talented are engineer will be bad but we'll muddle through it somehow. It's the director's problem to fix, not mine. Being a versatile survivor, I'll get by.

But a new, unexpected surprise rolled up this month. Global commodity management was deployed in the company. That means that I don't choose the vendor that I get parts and services from. I can only spec my needs while clerks bid the work. Where previously I built relationships with vendors now I must build relationships with four powerful clerks. Where before I convinced my area engineer and director of the worthiness of a project, now I must convince a GCM clerk as well. Everything my group does just became more difficult. I may have my guys but getting them stuff to do their work just became much more difficult. I'm more of a staff wienie from now on.

And my calibration/ ISO/TS/QS staff functions increased this month. Instead of nine weeks of work a year, it has become an almost full time activity. Not only do I manage the contractors and records but provide guidance on what gets calibrated and how often. So I'm involved with every process, process manager and most process engineers. Significantly more responsibility without clear authority or compensation. Odd.

But I am an experienced professional and survivor with only 284 weeks left to work before retirement. I'll get  by and make it work. Whatever "it" is. I expect to see more change in the next 5 1/2 years than I've seen in all of the previous 42 years! Tis good that I adapt and evolve well.

August will bring a brave new world to the fore.

Seven Days Until Banana Republic

Tea Party, GOP, Marxists and the shoeshine boy can't agree on income and expenses before August 2nd. The nation earns $2T and spends $3.5T, or 42% more than it earns. Either you pick up another half-time job or go broke.

But America can barely employ half it's population these days. There are no half-time jobs. Hell, they're lucky to work one full time job. Tax the crap out of the high end? They'll just lay off more peons to increase their wages. It's a zero sum game.

So it's check and mate. US rating downgrade, no budget and the government stumbles along for another year without a budget. The shoeshine boy picks his winners and losers, who gets paid and who doesn't. The US is about to become a banana republic.

But don't blame the politicians because you put them office. You let the corporations buy them and give it all away. You are the blame americans, with your big house, fancy car, huge TV and your Blackberry. And all the debt to buy things that make you look important. You earned it!

Now of course no one will read this because if there's one thing that americans can't stand, it's the truth. So ignore me. At least I wrote the truth.

The Norwegian Farmer is Coming for Each of Us.

It's all pretend, all the time now. Everywhere, everything, everyone. Beyond all salvation.

Who knew that Norwegians had political youth camps where the elites sent their children to be indoctrinated in socialist ideology (in between drinking, smoking pot and hot sex)? Didn't National Socialists do that in 1940s Germany? Hitler Youth? What could possibly go wrong with political youth camps?

Wretchard muses about what could go wrong when people lose faith in the King's Justice. That's fairly straight forward. They will ignore it and create their own justice. Each in his own little way. The thin veneer of civilization will lift and reveal the coarse material underneath.

If the President of the United States of America can assassinate, why can't a Norwegian farmer? If most people can't have a normal, stable life with a job, a home and a family then how does the King motivate a subject to live under his State of Law?

The King and his nobles have plundered the land and bicker over the remains. For three years there has been no budget, no law, no justice and no interest in the subject's thoughts about the future. Most subjects just shrug, look after those that they love the best they can and say "fuck it". A few will lash out.

The blemished King and his nobles have destroyed the full faith and confidence in the United States of America. The currency is in default because the government (i.e the people) are in default of the responsibilities and obligations of a people under Hobbe's State of Law.

No matter what the Congress and President negotiate regarding the debt ceiling, the national default has already occurred. State of Law has fallen and we live under a global State of Nature. The Norwegian farmer is coming for each of us.

Hard Times for a Long Time to Come

Insufferable, incompetent Treasury Secretary Timmy Geithner said americans will face hard times for a long time to come. No thanks to you and the fucking shoeshine boy. You and the boss didn't prevent the Depression, you caused it and for that crime against humanity you both ought to be tied to a lamp post and beat with rubber hoses every minute of every day for the rest of your worthless lives.

Burn in hell forever Timmy.

Debt Ceiling and the Future

Boehner has walked away from talks to increase taxes/reduce US debt as part of the debt ceiling hike. He'll settle for $2T in cuts over ten years despite the fact that debt will increase $15T over ten years...at minimum if spending continues as it has for the past three years.

So...the national debt in 2021 will at be $28T dollars! US GDP will be $19.1T in 2021 if the country produces a 3% gain every year, which is probably the best it can do. Debt will be 147% of GDP!

The Congress will increase the debt ceiling to $17.5T if they want to make it until 2013.

I don't know who they're going to find to buy the new debt. Who could trust these can kickers? The Federal Reserve will likely have to continue printing the debt, allowing inflation to drive the middle class out of existence.

I have a few ideas on budget items to cut. Here's a few:

1)   Legalize dope, tax it and pardon all offenders. Disband DEA.
2)   Disband the Border Patrol and officially open the borders.
3)   Disband TSA. Let private perverts do the groping.
4)   Cut the military by 60% and bring all troops home. No more free defense for non-payers.
5)   Disband NASA, DOE, EPA and NOAA. Let private enterprise handle these functions.
6)   Disband Department of Education. States can manage this function.

The war on drugs is lost. The US incarcerates millions of people and spends vast amounts of money enforcing drug laws. This enforcement is fueling the drug violence in Mexico that will eventually spill over the border to the US. You can't save people from their vices. Instead the government should tax dope and build the economy. There will be more dope stores than Starbucks.

Just disband the Border Patrol and open the borders.We are the world. We don't enforce borders anyway so why pretend. This will help the new owners convert the US to North Mexico in the coming decades

Let's just get rid of Homeland Security and it's TSA goons. There are no terrorists or we're all terrorists. I can't tell. But we don't need a bunch of low IQ thugs groping grandmas, nuns and children. Put all of these stupid americans back on welfare where they came from.

The US hasn't won a war since WW2 and won't under the current culture. The US military has become an arm of the UN that we can no longer afford. Let's bring all of these "nation builders" home, shut down overseas bases and let the world be what it will be. Perhaps we could sell the carriers to the UN or Chinese and let them police the sea lanes. They're Chinese now anyway. Some space assets, a few aircraft and a hundred thousand soldiers based in the US are all we need to defend North Mexico. 

We can't afford a space program anymore so why pretend. Disband NASA and let private contractors put up satellites and such. DOE does nothing since the US has no energy policy so close it down. We are shutting down manufacturing so EPA is no longer necessary, disband it. The Weather Channel can handle forecasting, why do we need NOAA?

Half of americans are stupid and can't be educated so why try? Having a federal Department of Education leaving "no child behind" has only resulted in teacher cheating. Let the states teach those students that want to learn and let the rest do dope and die. You can't save the world. Disband the federal education fraud.

_____________________________________________________________

The US is joining the rest of the world and it's time to start acting like it. The few wealthy elites can manage their sanctuaries while the majority poor can fight amongst themselves for the remains. The elite ruled government needs to stop the lies and let americans get used to their future as fa vela residents. From the Southwest to Northeast the country will slowly turn into North Mexico over the next 39 years.

Inflation Eats Your Raise in 2012

Inflation will out pace raises in 2012? This article says inflation will run 3.6% while raises average 3% which will "demolish" your raise.

I haven't had a pay raise since 2007. My wages are down 5.9% over the last 2 years and that's after a 39% pay cut from my Delphi wages. So I'm down about 45% from what I was making 4 years ago. Probably no raises at the company I work for this year either so I'll be down another 3.6% or 49% from 4 years ago at the end of the year. If this continues, I'll be making a third of what I was making in 2007 when I retire in 5 years. That's if I can even continue to work in this ever shrinking, age discriminatory economy.

And then there are those BLS inflation numbers that they throw around. How do they calculate these numbers? We spend about 12% of net pay a month on gasoline which has gone up 33% since last year. Food has gone up 6% this year. But BLS doesn't consider either energy or food as a component of inflation!

Health care has gone up about 10% per year over the past few years but that hardly factors into the BLS rate, coming in at 3% for 2011. Our deductible increased 40% this year even as the wife's annual blood work increased from $1000 to $5000, a 5 times increase. We're paying the hospital monthly payments all year long just to pay for well check ups! But BLS sees no inflation to speak of.

Now we have the Gang of Six congressmen proposing changes to the CPI to reduce federal spending for retirees. The "chained CPI" would reduce social security and federal pension raises by $112B over 10 years. After all, when grandma switches from wine to beer when the price of wine goes up, that's not really inflation. Just like when she switches from cube steak to dog food. That's just consumers making adjustments in a normal economy.

The elite controlled government has no interest in common americans any longer. In fact, I expect them to start smothering the elderly at home during mandatory well check up visits in the near future. "Youth mobs" will stop by with a government "nurse" to check on grandma, murder her and steal her stuff for social justice.

Gotta Go Now

The shoeshine boy says we're "turning the corner" on unemployment. Really? This month's numbers are bleak, 18,000 jobs created in an economy that needs to add 145,000 jobs a month just to keep up with population growth. Oh, and 44,000 less jobs were created in April than May. So BLS lied...again.

This government is losing legitimacy. No budgets, no management of government functions and destructive practices at every turn. Americans may as well have Iran or China running the country. The shoeshine boy is incompetent, or maybe just plain evil. In any case he is destroying this country and I don't know that it can survive another 18 months with him in office. He's got to go! And his socialist assclowns as well.

In a parliamentary government there would be a vote of no confidence. Here we need an impeachment and removal from office. The shoeshine boy has ruined this country for a generation!

Disconnect Here in the Dying Empire

I've been on vacation this week so I've had an opportunity to wander around the town more than usual this week where I've observed the disconnect between activities and reality.

Local officials and media have been downright giddy about the "resurgence" of the auto industry. Those with recall rights have been recalled but there is no new hiring. One third of the jobs that existed three years ago are just gone forever. The business can't be that robust because us old hands that know the business from the bottom up after 40 years of experience can't get an interview. All of this local talk of industry growth is just bullshit as local unemployment is still 12%, not including the unknown number who have early retired.

Banks are mitigating a number of local homes that have been abandoned and sat empty for the past few years. The process is unusual in that nameless trucks with shady looking characters show up to clear vegetation then more nameless trucks show to remove and replace the roof, drywall and doors. A for sale sign goes up but no one is buying locally. Sporadic mowing occurs but no one is seriously trying to sell the rehabilitated home.

I've never seen so much vacant commercial property in this town. I'd guess half of available commercial buildings are empty. It's as if a plague had swept over the city and killed half the population. Business opportunity has declined significantly here.

But road construction is booming. A new bypass is being built around the city and two other highways are being upgraded to speed traffic around the dying community. A major local road upgrade is underway on the city's edge, increasing lanes and leading ...nowhere. Once upon a time the city was growing in that direction. All of that stopped years ago but the city pretends that the roads will be needed.

The biggest surprise locally is how well residents have maintained their property. Yards are mostly well groomed and tidy. People aren't remodeling or adding stuff but they are keeping what they have looking nice.
Like me, many are using their vacation to maintain their home using their own labor.

I suppose it's human to carry on as usual even in a declining empire. What else are you going to do?

Stand

Almost three years ago I lost my job in what turned out to be the beginning of the 2008 Depression. I targeted a company that I wanted to work for and used every resource that I could muster to get the job. Just when things looked good the company lost a customer and looked like it too might fail. I hung on and so did the company. Eventually we hooked up and are still rolling along, despite fierce headwinds.

This song has always reflected my feelings about this time period and it's struggles. It tells my story and even now tells my story at this company. Then you stand.