Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Recession, Depression or Apocalypse?

Where is the global economy headed? I can't tell but I don't like the feel of recent events.

It is pretty clear that the economy is slowing so a recession seems to be in the works. But the troubles of large banks and investment firms coupled with late night moves by the Federal Reserve suggests something more ominous.

Every consultant, author, pundit and politician have given us their opinion about the state of the economy but their comments seem shallow and unconvincing. I don't believe a word that falls from their self-serving lips. Something is wrong.

My wife and I have noticed and commented about all the big houses, new cars and apparent wealth and pondered over where all the money came from. We haven't seen the boon in our household income.

My observation is generally an America in sharp decline with crumbling factories, towns and infrastructure. How is it possible to reconcile the apparent wealth of McMansions with the decline of the means to generate wealth?

The only explanation can be that Americans cashed out their gains from productive resources to be used for pleasure. Conspicuous display of wealth today trumps growth in the future. There is no tomorrow.

I fear that America is bankrupt and only a shell game keeps the truth of it from coming out. Even those who suspect the truth are afraid to peek under the cup and behold the financial ruin lurking beneath.

What lies down the road? Recession? Depression? Worse? I do not know. But I don't have a good feeling about the future.