Saturday, September 04, 2010

New Plan or Permanent Ruin


The WSJ reported job losses for Depression 2.0 since 2007. Manufacturing and construction jobs took the brunt of losses but everything except healthcare, education and government suffered net job losses. Economists say that most of these 7.6 million lost jobs are permanent and will never come back.

This chart suggests some major changes in american society in the future. I'll cover a few.

Most of the lost manufacturing and construction jobs lost paid a living wage to men that allowed them to start and support families. The permanent loss of those jobs mean that many men will never earn enough income to ever start and support families. They'll still spread their seed but someone else will have to pick up the bill. These otherwise gainfully employed young men will work minimum wage service jobs, create no wealth and live like gypsy studs with welfare moms raising children from various fathers.
Effectively these young men will create a drag on the economy by fathering children that they can't possible provide for. Those who have jobs that pay a living wage will have to provide for these children through higher taxes or fees.

A wife and family has always been a civilizing force for young men. The wife reinforces the responsibilities and obligations of being a husband and father on young men, reducing chaos, intoxication and violence in society at large. A working young man is a busy man who doesn't have the time nor money for jackassery, even more so for a working young man with a family to provide for.
A society that has a large percentage of it's young men unemployed, underemployed and without a family is a society with real problems. When young men have no hope of ever having meaningful work, wages or ever having a woman and family it is a disaster for a society. This toxic situation is alive now in the US.

The past two years the government has been pushing the unemployed to get an education for "jobs of the future". Healthcare and education are fields are both cited as careers of the future. Both have created jobs in the past two years. But is this growth in these fields sustainable?

Millions of baby boomers will need medical care as they age over the next 15 years. Theoretically demand for services will increase. But who will pay for this care in a ever-shrinking economy? If manufacturing and construction jobs are permanently lost then those living wages that provided tax receipts are permanently lost as well. As more health care workers become available and the wealth that pays for health care decreases it will drive health care wages down. Health care doesn't increase national wealth it consumes it. So the system spirals ever downward until all wealth is consumed.

Education is important to a nation's economy but it doesn't directly create wealth, rather it also consumes wealth. As wealth and tax receipts decline in america who will pay for educational costs? Schools are already furloughing teachers to balance budgets. As deflation reduces property values and wage income declines, schools can't find more revenue. Again, the system spirals ever downward until all wealth is consumed.

Government is incapable of creating wealth. It can only consume and redistribute wealth. Adding government jobs is a drag on any economy and taken to extremes will kill the host. The present administration has embraced bigger government that will permanently kill the US.

American leadership has made some awful decisions the past couple of decades that have come to the fore now. They are still making awful decisions when not paralyzed by fear of offending some aggreived party or goring their own self-interest. We need a new national plan from a new national leadership before we fall into permanent ruin.

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