Sunday, December 19, 2010

Could You Retire Without Social Security?

The WSJ asks the question, could you retire without social security? Then they provide some interesting data for those doing retirement financial planning.

I never expected more from government than to provide for common security and make treaties, coordinate interstate projects and generally enforce the Constitution. The government has been generally failing at those modest tasks lately, and they are getting worse.

I never counted on social security and Medicare, and as the government added benefits I just couldn't see how they could pay for it all. I counted on pensions, savings and investments to take care of my wife and I in retirement rather than social security and Medicare.

Since 2000 the concepts of defined benefit pensions and medical care have disappeared. One of my pensions was handed over to PBGC and I expect another will soon follow. I may end up with one defined benefit pension and two PBGC pensions. I planned but the world changed. I don't know what else I could have done differently.

Our savings and investments took horrific hits the past ten years. We lost years of earnings opportunities because of market losses and lost income due to unemployment. We're behind plan but still have decent savings that could provide a very modest retirement. I plan to work as long as I can so we can continue to build our savings rather than tap earnings.

To the question, could we retire without social security, I'd answer just barely. But in reality no, because if social security collapses it will mean that the US government and economy has collapsed. This would take down two of my pensions, our savings and most likely our only pension not managed by PBGC. If the US government fails, we're financially doomed.

Even if the pensions, savings and social security remain healthy, I believe the wildcard will be health care in retirement. Healthcare inflation has been unsustainable for years and will probably remain so. If Medicare fails I suspect even the best retirement planning will bankrupt retirees when health problems arise. How many retirees could pay $2000 per month for insurance plus the ongoing medical bills? Not many.

I would rather expose myself to the weather if seriously ill than leave my wife destitute in her old age. Put me in a snowbank and throw a bucket of water on me. At least I would die with some honor.

It's a little late in the game for most of us approaching retirement to change our game plan. I could probably retire without social security but the conditions that cause the collapse of it would collapse everything else that I would need to retire without social security. So, in reality the answer is no.

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