Wednesday, August 25, 2010

More Gloomy Economic News

Roubini, the prophet of the 2007 economic crash, says third quarter growth will be below 1% and there's a 40% chance the economy will tip into a double-dip recession. Roach says the double dip is here now.

Morgan Stanley says that global sovereign debt defaults are inevitable. US debt to GDP is 53% but US debt to revenue is 358%. Not good!

Roubini is clearly afraid to speak the truth. We are not working under a normal business cycle so this is not a recession but a deepening depression. Maybe he wants to maintain some public optimism so he doesn't stampede the herd.

Morgan Stanley's report suggests no growth for decades, so revenue cannot increase to levels sufficient to pay down debt, especially in the US. So either taxes rise dramatically or the dollar is debased to repay debt. Both methods kill the US economy in the short and long term.

Mort Zuckerman thinks american optimism is over and wonders if the post-WW2 economy is dead, forever. Sherman Okst thinks the inmates are in charge of the economy asylum with backwards wages, big government, corporatocracy in an world of scarce resources. He has some ideas that will be ignored.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home