Sunday, September 25, 2011

US Overall Debt is 380% of GDP and Heading for 520% in a Decade

The US is stuck in a debt bubble not unlike the Japanese experience of the last couple of decades. Overall american debt, both sovereign and personal, is 380% of GDP. This debt cripples growth as domestic consumers reduce spending to pay down personal debt.

The federal government borrows to provide a safety net and to stimulate growth which adds 10% to the overall debt each year. Rather than stimulating, this borrowing hinders growth and inflates the debt bubble even further. Another decade of this spending/borrowing and overall debt will rise to 480% of GDP.

Americans still import $53B more per month than they export so they borrow $636B per year mostly for energy. A decade of this spending/borrowing will drive overall debt to 520% of GDP.

An individual, company or nation might be able to survive with a 5:1 debt to income ratio if they are growing. But not if income is stagnant or declining as is the case in the US today. The US is heading for failure if it doesn't learn to live within it's means.

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