Sunday, August 29, 2010

Hoping for Something to Change

The NYT summarized where the US economy stands as "Policy Options Dwindle as Economic Fears Grow". The Fed and government have shot their wad and have nothing left but "hoping something changes".

As an engineer I know what hope will get you and it isn't pretty. The reality is that once you try something and it fails you better, by God, toss that something and come up with a new plan. Trying the same something over and over again while expecting a different outcome is, by definition, insanity.

This Depression now has a life of it's own and it will continue if left unmolested. That's the way of things.

The common man sees what's going on, shuns risk and won't be the something that changes to turn the economy around. For the average guy, deflation is here, now. His wages, house, investments and everything else has lost value. Even his sentiment about his future has deflated.

If you doubt deflation is here now then go to a few yard sales. Most of the items for sale can be had for pennies on the ten dollars. My wife is shocked at what she can buy for next to nothing these days at local yard sales.

Bernanke's concern about future deflation is already a lost cause because it is here now. And we are one crisis away from an investor flight from Treasuries to commodities that will initiate the hyperinflation that will wipe the Ponzi scheme, that the global economy has become, from the face of the earth.

The Fed will buy T-bills and print money in a futile effort to stop the stampede from Treasuries. But it will fail. The government will try wage and price controls to stop hyperinflation, but it will fail. The crisis will go on until it can no longer go on, then something will change. If history is our guide then that something will probably involve blood running in the streets.

As you go forth in the new week remember our new national battle cry;  

HOPE FOR SOMETHING TO CHANGE.

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