Monday, August 30, 2010

Home or Millstone


The DOW almost dropped below 10k today, loosing value continually as the day wore on. Optimism for economic recovery would be Dow 10600. We aren't going to see that number any time soon, unless of course the market is manipulated by sinister forces.

A BoA study suggests that the number of households created has declined and will remain low until 2013, assuming that unemployment dips to 7%. The Jackson Hole club thinks we'll have 6 more years of high unemployment, 2010 + 6 =2017 by my reckoning. So what's the chance of more households being created by 2013?
Home prices may fall another 20-25% according to BoA's judgement based upon supply and demand. And that doesn't factor in deflation. So that nestegg that you call your home is a millstone around your neck. If you can't rent or sell the house then you are stuck where you are. Else you give the keys to the bank. Then what?

Our best hope is DOW 7000 and home prices back to 1980 values. Worst case is DOW 0 and piles of rubble strewn across a blood soaked Dark Age landscape.

Buy a sword.

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