Saturday, April 24, 2010

My Hometown is Dead

My hometown used to be a significant manufacturing site in the US but the last decade has seen 13,000 manufacturing jobs disappear. None of those jobs will ever be back. This would be a major blow to any city, but for a city with a population of 47,000 souls, the job losses are killing the city.

The last few years have continued the job losses due to the Great Recession. The table below is revealing.

Report Date: September 2009
Sector                               2007       2008       2009     %Total
Manufacturing                14,100     12,000     9,600     23.4
Government                     7,700      7,800      7,800     19.0
Retail                                   5,700      5,600      5,400     13.2
Education & Health        4,100      4,200      4,500     11.0
Leisure & Hospitality     4,500      4,500      4,300     10.5

Total                                  36,100    34,100     31,600

Notice that 4,500 manufacturing jobs have vanished since 2007.  Those jobs provided living wages that powered government, retail, health, education and leisure spending. The loss of those jobs resulted in lost retail and leisure related employment. Only government, education and health related employment increased over the past few years, as the government pumped money into the community to keep our heads above the water of the economic deluge.

But how long will government from outside the community continue to pump money into the city? How can the government continue to subsidize a dying city when bankrupt themselves?

Since the Fall of 2008, the government has been retraining laid-off workers for jobs that don't (and won't) exist in the community. Many are training for management and health care jobs. But both fields are saturated here so the newly trained will have to go elsewhere to find work. Where is this magical elsewhere?

Exacerbating all these problems is the housing dilemma. Many of these displaced workers owned homes in the community. The median home price has fallen from $110,000 to $70,000 in the past few years as there are no home buyers, only sellers. Those who are lucky enough to have kept their home and have been retrained will not be able to sell their home to relocate where jobs exist. The community is full of abandoned homes that have been on the market for years. Without jobs that pay living wages, those houses will never be sold or even rented, as there is insufficient income for mortgages or rent. So almost every neighborhood has houses that are slowly falling into overgrown trash piles.

The local tax base is collapsing and only outside money keeps essential services going. The local government is forced to beg for state and federal funds that cannot go on indefinitely. The local economic development commission grasps at any venture that expresses interest but all want massive tax abatement that the city can't begin to afford.

The only business that is growing in the city is the booming drug and crime business. Methmakers and their criminal customers are popping up everywhere. A guy four houses down from mine was arrested last week for brewing meth at a church parking lot. There is nothing else for most of the youth to do but have sex, get high and hang around. Zero future for these young people.

It feels like the end here in my hometown. One of my daughters will graduate from college this May and will be looking for work somewhere else. There is nothing here for her. Another daughter will graduate next May and will probably have to go elsewhere to find work. That will leave me and the wife trapped in our house that we can never sell in a dying american city. Me, grandma and 40,000 unemployed meth makers with their customers. Sounds grand eh? That's what I worked 40 years for.

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