Saturday, July 17, 2010

No Confidence

Apparently consumers don't agree with government and financial experts that the economy is slowly recovering. Consumer sentiment dropped 10 points, back to where it was last July. At the same time, currency investors are losing confidence that the dollar will hold value, considering the corruption now entrenched in the congress. The Dow crumbled yesterday wiping the last two weeks of gains out and flirting with 10k.

Confidence makes many things possible. A man will take on risk if he believes that the environment is stable, that he is getting good information and is not vulnerable to harm by those around him. Being high on the Maslow Heirarchy of Needs scale is important

Most americans now believe that they've been lied to, that corrupt government and business leaders have stolen from them and that it is now every man for himself because they don't know who to trust. There is no trust left so there is declining confidence.
 
The value of the dollar is confidence in America. When consumers tell pollsters that they won't be considering buying a home, car or major appliances it is because they are uncertain about their safety. They have less confidence.

America has been successful because of our confidence in ourselves over the past 235 years. Confidence is American Exceptionalism. We could be confident because we could have more trust in each other than the rest of the world. But we were more homogeneous then than we are now. And we had common standards of behavior and there were conseqeunces for irresponsible behavior. All of that is gone and with it both trust and confidence.

So now we have elected a government that is just as corrupt as the rest of the world and we are faltering as a nation as we become just like the rest of the world. I don't know how we turn america around this time. I think too many people want someone else to provide for their safety. They have turned to the government to provide safety even as they have lost trust in our institutions. It makes no sense whatsoever.

Trust is very difficult to restore once lost. One can forgive but not forget and will thereafter be constantly looking for the next breach of faith. The sense of belongingness is shattered and what comes after the breach in trust is but an imitation of the original. One never really trusts again.

I wish that I could offer some approach to restore trust in the country but I can't. We seemed doomed to drift ever downward, slowly, agonizingly circling the drain. The lies will become ever bigger as our institutions try in vain to spread the pain evenly. We are already cannabilizing our economy and society until either nothing is left or, perhaps, we choose a strongman to restore order. He will more likely be a Hitler or Stalin than a Reagan. He will blame others and encourage bloodletting to appease Fate.

I had hoped to save a little more money, accumulate some modest earnings to support my wife and I in our old age and get the pensions that I earned working for 50 years. The dream seems gone now. I'll work until I can't just to pay bills and taxes as my savings erode then get none of my now government administered pensions. I'll die pre-maturely in some hospital hallway because some bureaucrat will decide that I'm not worth treating unless I'm lucky and die from dysentry after eating my lawn. Pretty grim stuff ahead I'm afraid.

But this weekend I'll play with the grandboys, do some yard and garden work and show the boys how to be tough. They'll need to be tough to survive the coming troubles. Perhaps they'll be Vikings even as I become a hermit monk. At least there will be purpose in our lives.

God bless!

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