Friday, June 04, 2010

Go Ugly Early

It has all caught up with us now.

The federal government's May employment lies were released today and the markets said bullshit, then dived below 10,000. The US needs to create 500,000 jobs a month to absorb the kids coming out of high school and college. More to put the millions of chronically unemployed back to work. The economy only generated 41,000 jobs in May. The US economy is stagnant and the DOW sought reality.

Meanwhile in Europe, Hungary is shopping default on it's debt. The Euro lost value and there was more talk of the EU disintegrating under an avalanche of sovereign debt. Just a few months ago the media was touting the Euro as the backbone of the new international reserve currency. That dream has died in the womb.

All these trillions of stimuli have failed to revive the Western economies. The Keynesian economic model of spending to revive economies in recession has failed. But global economic leadership keeps beating the dead horse. We are screwed.

Governments will continue to print and borrow to pay off the mob so they don't riot like the Greeks. But liquidity is drying up rapidly. When the unemployment and welfare checks stop coming there will be violence in the streets. God help you if you live in a large metropolitan area. Order will unravel pretty quickly and the police can't be everywhere. If I lived in a major US city I would try to move to the suburbs or better yet a rural place.
This ain't the 1930s and people aren't gonna stand in orderly soup lines or politely ask if they can do some yard work for a meal. More likely they will come to your house and take your stuff. Get a gun, lots of ammo and learn how to shoot. It may keep you and your family alive for a while.

I think the DOW is going to find reality at about 7000, representing a loss of 37% or $25T of global equity. In 1930 the world population was 2 billion with 1.5 billion people living primitive lifestyles. With a global population of 7 billion, most of whom living modern lifestyles, we face an unprecedented disaster. Consider all the implications.

If the economic problems weren't bad enough, thugs in Iran and North Korea are hell bent to start WW3. NATO member Turkey has gone Islamist and is helping Iran start a war with Israel. North Korea threatens war daily now as China provokes Japan. Hezbollah is training Venezualian irregular troops and Russia is selling modern arms to Chavez. A miscalculation could start a world war.

We could go ugly early. Prepare for the worst and pray for God's help.

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