Saturday, October 09, 2010

The Withering Vine

One in five american jobs are gone...until 2020! The US economy must produce 150,000 jobs per month just to keep up with population growth but we only got 610,000 new jobs per year in 2010. So on top of 30 million americans who are either un or under-employed we add another 1.2 million new job seekers who can't find work this year.
These under/unemployed aren't in a state of suspended animation. They all need food, a roof over their head, health care, clothing and entertainment to survive. How is america going to manage this with an economy operating at 70% of capacity? The US doesn't have either the GDP or borrowing capacity to continue to supporting these under/unemployed that have been put out of work.

But this isn't the real story, which is when you have this many under/unemployed, wages will fall, which they have and will for a decade! Now you have 20% out of work and those who are working, will be making less money. With deflated equity values and less income, the coming inflation and tax increases will knock the crap out of the US consumer economy. You can't grow your way out of this depression.

On top of all this, you have the impending retirement of an entire generation of boomers that will need social security and medicare to survive. Just when the government needed the income to pay for those entitlements and the brand new Obamacare entitlements, income withers. Something has to give.

Obamacare is already killing the health insurance industry and it hasn't even gone into effect yet! Insurers have already discontinued individual children policies and gap coverage policies because of the fear of abuse. Next up is the institution of "one size fits all" poliices that require comprehensive coverage for everyone. Once Obamacare goes online where everyone is covered for everything with unlimited coverage, expect individual rates to shoot to $2000 per month and group/employee monthly payments to go to $500 per month. And expect a $1000 deductible before the insurance pays a dime.

My doctor read the tea leaves and decided to retire rather than try to make a living with Obamacare. She originally intended to work for another five years but felt she would be working for nothing, so she called it quits. I can't find a good doctor who will take a new patient in Bruigville. I have to resort to McClinics where you're seen by whomever is on duty, kinda like the drive up at McDonalds. My dog gets more personalized care and certainly better care at the local veterinarian.

The american vine is withering.

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